How New Smartphone Launches Affect Old Phone Resale Value
If your phone seemed to lose value overnight a few weeks after a new model was announced, that was not your imagination. It is the single most predictable movement in phone resale value, it happens to every model, and it starts earlier than most people expect.
Understanding the mechanism is useful, because it is the one part of depreciation you can actually plan around.
Disclosure: Cashkr is our own device buyback platform. We buy used phones, so advice that amounts to "sell sooner" happens to suit us. We have flagged below where we cannot support a number, rather than estimating one.
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How this guide was made: The depreciation figures come from SellCell, which tracks trade-in prices across more than 40 buyback platforms, and measure the US market. We explain below what does and does not transfer to India. The mechanism described is how used phone pricing behaves generally and is not specific to any one platform.
A phone's resale value steps down when its replacement is announced, not when the replacement ships.
By the time the new model reaches shops, most of the decline has already happened. Buyers stop competing for the outgoing model as soon as they know something newer is coming, and sellers start listing at the same moment.
If you are planning to upgrade, the weeks before an announcement are worth more than any other timing decision you can make.
Four Things Happen at Once
A launch does not reduce resale value through a single mechanism. Four separate forces arrive together, which is why the effect is sharper than ordinary month to month depreciation.
Demand shifts to the new model. Buyers who were considering a used previous generation phone start waiting instead. Interest in the outgoing model falls before anything else changes.
Retailers cut prices on the outgoing model. This is the one most people overlook, and it matters most. When a brand new previous generation phone gets an official price cut, a used one has to come down too, because it is now competing against a new device rather than a hypothetical one. The used price is anchored to whatever the new price becomes.
Exchange and trade in offers appear. Manufacturers and retailers push upgrade deals at launch, which pulls forward sales that would otherwise have happened over months.
Supply floods the second hand market. Every person who upgrades has a phone to dispose of. Thousands of the same model arrive on the market in the same few weeks, all competing for the same buyers.
Falling demand and rising supply at the same time is what produces a sharp step down rather than a gentle slope.
What the Data Shows About Scale
We are not going to publish a percentage for the drop in the weeks immediately after a launch, because we cannot source one that holds across brands and models. Anyone quoting a precise figure for that window is estimating.
What is documented is how much phones lose over longer periods, and it puts the launch effect in context.
SellCell, which tracks trade-in pricing across more than 40 buyback platforms, found the following:
Over twelve months: the iPhone 15 lost 48.2 percent of its value, the iPhone 13 lost 46.2 percent, the Galaxy S23 lost 61.1 percent and the Galaxy S22 lost 66.7 percent.
Over five months: the iPhone 13 lost 24.7 percent, the iPhone 16 lost 35.4 percent, the Galaxy S25 lost 46.6 percent and the Galaxy S22 lost 51.9 percent.
Two things are worth drawing from that. First, the losses are large even over short periods, so waiting is expensive regardless of launch timing. Second, the five month figures cover roughly the period in which a successor is announced, which is a meaningful part of why they are as steep as they are.
An important caveat. These are United States figures for mint condition devices. The ranking between brands holds in India, but the exact percentages do not transfer. India has stronger relative demand for used iPhones, a much larger informal market, and fiercer competition in the mid range. Treat these as the shape of depreciation rather than a price list, and use a calculator for your actual phone.
Which Phones Hold Value Best
Apple leads, and the gap is measurable. At the twelve month mark, SellCell found the iPhone 15 retained roughly 52 percent of its value against roughly 39 percent for the Galaxy S23. That is a gap of about thirteen percentage points, which on an expensive phone is a significant amount of money.
Samsung flagships come next, and are improving. Each recent Galaxy S generation has depreciated slightly slower than the one before it. Samsung's seven year update commitment on recent flagships is the most likely reason, because a phone guaranteed years of support is a phone people will buy used.
Apple's lead is narrowing from both directions. Each recent iPhone generation depreciates slightly faster than the last, while Samsung improves. At five months the gap between the iPhone 16 and the Galaxy S25 was 11.2 percentage points.
For other brands we do not have comparable published figures, and we are not going to invent grades. What can be said without numbers is the reasoning that applies:
Update support length is the clearest predictor. A phone that will still receive security patches in three years has a buyer in three years.
Launch cadence works against resale. Brands that release several models a year at similar prices push their own previous models down faster, because a nearly identical new phone is always available.
Tier matters more than brand. A flagship holds value considerably better than a mid range phone from the same manufacturer. Choosing the tier is a bigger resale decision than choosing the badge.
The Launch Calendar Worth Knowing
You do not need to track the whole industry. Two dates cover most phones in India.
Apple announces new iPhones at a keynote in September, almost every year without exception. If you own an iPhone and intend to upgrade, August is a better month to sell than October.
Samsung holds Unpacked events, typically one early in the year for the Galaxy S series and another later for foldables.
Other brands launch on less predictable schedules, but the rule of thumb is simple: a model that has been on sale for close to a year is usually close to being replaced.
When to Sell
Before the announcement, not before the release. These are different dates and the announcement is the one that matters. Prices begin moving as soon as a successor is confirmed.
Before the festive sale season, if selling for cash. During large sale events, new phones are discounted heavily, and a used phone competes against the discounted new price rather than the normal one. That puts downward pressure on used values. The exception is if you are buying a replacement in the same sale, where exchange bonuses can more than make up the difference.
Before waiting becomes the decision. The most expensive timing mistake is not selling in the wrong month. It is deciding to sell eventually, and then not doing it for a year. A phone sitting unused loses value continuously, and nothing about that is recoverable.
What Else Decides Your Price
Launch timing sets the market. These decide where your specific phone lands within it.
Condition. After model and age, the largest single factor, and the one you control. Screen first, then body.
Battery health. Usually the first thing an inspection checks and the number most owners have never looked at. On iPhone: Settings, then Battery, then Battery Health and Charging.
Storage variant. Higher capacity holds value better, and the gap often widens on the used market rather than narrowing.
Box, charger and invoice. They add real money and help establish that the phone is genuine.
Warranty remaining. Reduces the perceived risk for a buyer and supports a higher price.
Demand for your specific model. Popular models hold up. Models that sold poorly are harder to move at any price.
Before You Sell
Do these in this order. The sequence matters more than people realise.
1. Back up your data, and verify the backup by signing in on another device.
2. Sign out of your Apple ID or Google account. On iPhone: Settings, then your name, then Find My, switch off Find My iPhone, then Sign Out. On Android: Settings, then Accounts, then remove your Google account.
3. Remove the SIM, memory card and any eSIM profile. A factory reset does not always clear an eSIM.
4. Then factory reset.
If you reset while still signed in, Activation Lock or Factory Reset Protection ties the phone to your account. The next owner cannot set it up, and the sale cannot complete. It is the most common reason a doorstep pickup fails, and the phone is usually in perfect condition when it happens.
5. Remove the case and screen protector so the real condition is visible, and describe any faults accurately. An honest description is what keeps the quote you were given the same as the amount you are paid.
Checking What Yours Is Worth
If you are thinking about upgrading, the useful first step is finding out what your current phone is worth today rather than guessing, because that figure decides whether selling now or waiting makes sense.
Check what your phone is worth. It takes about a minute and gives a figure for your specific model, storage and condition rather than a brand average.
FAQs
1. How do new smartphone launches affect old phone resale value?
Four things happen at once. Demand shifts to the new model, retailers cut prices on the outgoing one, exchange offers pull forward upgrades, and the second hand market floods with the same model as thousands of people upgrade together. Falling demand and rising supply arriving at the same time produces a sharp step down rather than gradual decline.
2. Does the drop happen at announcement or at release?
At announcement. Buyers stop competing for the outgoing model as soon as they know a successor is coming, and sellers list at the same moment. By the time the new phone reaches shops, most of the movement has already happened.
3. How much value does a phone lose after a new launch?
It varies enough by brand and model that we will not publish a single figure. What is documented is the longer term picture: SellCell found the iPhone 15 lost 48.2 percent over twelve months and the Galaxy S23 lost 61.1 percent, measuring the US market. For your specific phone, a calculator gives a real number rather than an average.
4. When is the best time to sell my phone?
In the weeks before your model's successor is announced. For iPhones that usually means selling before Apple's September keynote. For cash sales, the festive discount period is generally a slightly worse time, because heavily discounted new phones drag used prices down with them.
5. Which phones hold their resale value best?
Apple leads by a measurable margin. SellCell found the iPhone 15 retained about 52 percent of its value at twelve months against about 39 percent for the Galaxy S23. Samsung flagships come next and have improved with each generation, most likely because of the seven year update commitment. Tier matters more than brand: a flagship holds value far better than a mid range phone from the same maker.
6. Why do retail price cuts on old models matter to me?
Because a used phone competes against the current price of a new one, not its launch price. When the outgoing model gets an official price cut, the used price has to follow, since a buyer can now get a brand new one for not much more.
7. Do these percentages apply in India?
Not exactly. They are United States figures for mint condition devices. The ranking between brands holds here, but India has stronger relative demand for used iPhones, a larger informal market and fiercer mid range competition. Use them as the shape of depreciation and a calculator for the actual number.
8. Should I wait for prices to recover?
Used phone prices do not recover. They decline continuously and step down sharply at each successor launch. Waiting costs money in every scenario.
9. What should I do before selling?
Back up, sign out of your Apple or Google account, remove the SIM and any eSIM, then factory reset, in that order. Resetting while signed in locks the phone to your account and the next owner cannot activate it.
